Newsletter 04-03-09

Well, it has been 2 months since the last newsletter. My so long between newsletter?
Several reasons:

Due to the lack of response to the survey, I figure folks were getting tired of hearing from me. 23 total responses out of over 600 possible
I been busy actively trading in this market. Including the 10 stocks I list in the March 10, 2009 Newsletter. Still 10 winners, no losers. However, a few are rolling over and should be giving back a good amount. so if you are in any of these you should be ready to exit soon.
I have been taking several free and fee trading courses. More on them below.
I have been working on a couple new trading strategies which have been showing very good returns in live trading.
I have been working on setting up a Fee based service with trade suggestions using existing trade strategies and the new strategies.
Finally and most important I have taken time out to visit my children and grandchildren.

The big question this week on the radio and TV talk shows was about how this week's DOW is like the 1987 market conditions before the October bomb. I, personally, do not see a correlation between them. see the charts below. If I am wrong send me an email kermitp@tradingourway.com and explain what I missed. Both charts cover a 10 month time span.

Compare DOW OCT87 to June 09

Joyce Moore, who did the travel arrangements for our cruise last year, sent me an email to ask my opinion on the series of Doji's forming this week. I thought I'd share my response to her. Joyce did a great job on our cruise and if you need help with travel drop her an email cruising@salethesea.com

My Response:
I have coined the phrase, “DOJI Farm”, for this type of pattern because it looks like a bunch of green onion rows. Actually, what you see is a series of DOJI and today an inverted hanging man. Definitely, bearish.

Absolutely, we are due for a move soon but it what direction, as always, is unknown. Another reason to play an option spread.

Given the time of year, the constant bad news, and the fact that we have had 37% price increase in the DOW and it is a 92% retrace of the Jan09 to Mar09 down leg.

My bet is we will see a corrective Elliott wave 4 between now and Mid-Aug. Elliott wave software is projecting a draw down of slightly less than 1,000 points but I think it will be somewhere in the 7400 - 7900 range

My video:
I thought it might be better if I created a short video, 10 minutes, explaining what I think may happen. Watch the Video.

DOJI Farm

I mentioned above that I had been taking free and fee trading courses.

I have taken a few of Barry Burns courses and found them
reasonably priced, well structured, and easy to understand.

It doesn't happen often, but I've come across a great trading
course that I wanted to share with you, and best of all ...

... it's completely free.

The course has 5 videos that walk you clearly through some
of the most powerful trading material I've ever seen. You will
get a day video each day. Each video has a short quiz as a refresher.

I personally took the course, loved it, and learned a lot
from it. My trading will never be the same.

You can access the course for yourself here:

Click Here To Get Your FREE Five Day Video Trading Course

It is only fair to warn you Barry sells courses as well and you will receive emails from him. I like his courses and he offers a 90 day no questions asked,money back Guarantee.

I mentioned above I had been studying and creating new trade strategies. I have been using Worden Brothers' StockFinder The big advantage this software offers is a very flexible scripting language where you can create your own code to manipulate the historical data to generate buy and sell signal based on your strategy. once you complete the strategy it will work in real-time or end of data. There is a learning curve that most people aren't willing to put in but once you do it is fantastic. Never before have I been able to do the things I wanted in both EOD and RT. Now I can.

I, also, mentioned I am working on a fee service (small fee) to be released in the next few months, likely October. more information will be coming soon.